I’m a Brit so the debate in the UK over whether to remain in the EU is a very personal one for me.
One thing strikes me about most of the arguments I hear expressed on both sides. They only consider one or two moves ahead. If you will permit the analogy that the UK navigating it’s way in the world is like a chess game against multiple players, then you’d need a rainbow of different coloured pieces to represent the complexity. So let’s simplify matters and view it as a chess game between the UK on one side and the rest of the world on the other. If we see ourselves as a ‘Kasparov’, then we are going to be exploring all sorts of ways the game will play out and thinking 10, 20, 30 moves ahead.
There’s no point in capturing a rook if you go on to lose your queen.
With this in mind, I am puzzled that the arguments I hear consider just one move ahead, two at best. They take one aspect of our membership of the EU and then try to convince us that leaving or staying will affect that one aspect in a certain, predictable way. One move ahead.
I hope that we are smart enough to look beyond tomorrow, for our descendant’s sake.
I’m good at games, but my brother can thrash me at Chess so I’m clearly the wrong person to be doing this. Nevertheless I will place some pieces on the board and see how things go. You can decide for yourself if they are pawns or bishops or whatever, but I would advise you not to over-extend the metaphor.
Let’s say our first move is to leave the EU. I’m going to try and go 10 moves ahead and see how it plays out.
Move 2
The pound drops as investors get out of sterling until the dust settles.
Scotland holds another referendum and votes to leave the UK and re-join the EU themselves. Wales gets restless.
The EU wobbles, then adjusts and stabilises, weakened but still a major world economic force.
The UK begins to establish new trade agreements with EU countries.
Move 3
UK finds itself outside trade agreements brokered by the EU with North America, the Caribbean and others. Exports suffer.
EU countries prefer trade within the EU where possible, hurting exports even more.
The Euro rises against Sterling, making our imports more expensive.
Move 4
The trade deficit steadily worsens.
Prices rise across the board.
Tax revenues decline.
UK slips into recession.
Move 5
World politics sideline the UK as being too much a ‘small outsider’ to have the voice it once had.
The BRIC nations, the EU and the USA dominate events.
The UK remains an important part of NATO nevertheless.
Move 6
The UK becomes introverted and obsessed with its own economic problems.
Financial institutions begin to leave London, preferring an EU location.
Wages stagnate, job losses increase, inflation rises, social unrest increases.
Move 7
The UK elects a socialist government that abandons Trident to save money.
There’s a revolution at the UN and the UK loses its seat on the security council.
Taxes go up significantly to support increasing jobless numbers and loss of corporate tax revenues
Move 8
UK economy goes into freefall. Riots in the streets.
Vote of ‘no confidence’ in the government brings it down. Snap election looms.
The conservatives return to power on a promise to turn around the economy and heal the unrest.
Move 9
Huge incentives are offered to manufacturers, corporations and banks to bring them back to the UK.
The NHS is reduced to a bare bones emergency care service with state loans replacing free treatment.
Welfare spending is increased.
Home owners are given help to avoid mounting repossessions.
Move 10
Slowly, the economy stabilises as a leaner state and new inward investment takes effect.
Taxes begin to come down, but remain high overall.
The UK begins to look outwards again, but finds it no longer has influence.
The world has moved on.
That was depressing wasn’t it? And of course it could very well be completely wrong. But at least it attempts to think ahead more than, for example, this:
“We need to stop all these immigrants so let’s leave the EU.”
You have to be a special kind of stupid to think that would improve anything. The average Brit is the descendant of every kind of immigrant and invader you could care to list. Our strength is that the most adventurous and strong from elsewhere in the world have come to our shores, sometimes sword in hand, sometimes with an amazing work ethic, and have improved our gene pool for millennia.
Of course we should ensure that those arriving don’t take unfair advantage of our welfare state, but that’s what politics is about. We change the EU from within by negotiating hard on the basis of fairness and common sense. That’s what the UK is best at representing. We don’t get dewy eyed about concepts, we make realities that work. I have a sense that this voice, exemplified by the UK, is gaining strength in the EU. Many countries are uneasy about how the European rules work in the context of mass immigration. Many are unhappy with the way the institutions work. Let’s build a consensus and continue to push for a better EU.
Let’s fight to make a Europe that is worth belonging to.
Finally, we should never forget why keeping Europe united is so important. It is a continent full of proud, independent and powerful countries who conquered the world between them. The European project has many aims but top of that list is making sure we never again descend into the brutal savagery that brought us to our knees twice in the last century. If the UK leaves, we weaken that project and we create a dangerous precedent.
Do we want to be the first domino that fell and brought everything crashing down?
Think hard, fellow Brits. Think ahead!
Filed under: Politics & Religion
